The mind boggling number game of forming a government in Punjab continues. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Pakistan Muslim League (N) gears up their efforts to reach to Independent members of provincial assembly to join the team to win the magic number required to form the government.
Punjab Assembly has 297 seats. To form a government, a party or an alliance requires having a magic number of 149 seats.
At present, Pakistan Muslim League (N), this was a ruling party in Punjab for a decade stands on the first position with 129 seats, not enough to form a government on its own in Punjab. On the other hand, with a close margin, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf succeeds in reaching at the score of 123, still not enough to form a government with a majority.
In a current neck and neck competition, both of the parties are required to have a support of enough number of independents while aiming to have government in Punjab.
Besides PMLN and PTI, the other key players in the battle ground include independents with 30 seats, PML Q with 7 seats, PPP with 6 seats while BAP, Functional League and PAR has one seat each.
The PMLN prospects of forming government in Punjab
PMLN leader Hamza Shahbaz in his presser announced to form the government with the assistance of PPP and independent candidates and are in contacts. The number games suggests following prospects of PMLN to form government in Punjab:
If PMLN would get the assistance of PPP and all the independent candidates, PMLN can easily surpasses the magic number to form a government with decisive majority.
(PMLN) 129 + (PPP) 06 + (Ind) 30 = 165
In case, few of the independents would not want to go with the former ruling party, still PMLN can manage with the 6 seats of PPP and minimum 14 more from independents.
(PMLN) 129 + (PPP) 06 + (Ind) 14= 149
In case, even PPP would not settled over an alliance with PMLN, PMLN needs support of 20 independents to reach to the magic number of 149 to declare its rule again in Punjab.
(PMLN) 129 + (Ind) 20 = 149
The PTI prospects of forming government in Punjab
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf manages to have a quite share in the center to form a coalition government with the help of allies, independents and/or the other parties.
Likewise, PTI after concentrating much in the politics of Punjab in past five years, succeeds in securing 123 seats with the help of allies like PMLQ, former PMLN disgruntled group Suba Junubi Mahaz headed by Khusro Bakhtiyar.
PTI is also in a good position to form the government in Punjab.
PTI has the following prospects to form a coalition government in Punjab:
If PTI along with the ally PMLQ with 7 seats will be joined by all of the independents, PTI can form the government in Punjab with 160 numbers of seats.
(PTI) 123 + (PMLQ) 07 + (Ind) 30 = 160
After having been done the adjustments of seats with PMLQ, PTI now stands with 129 seats and requires support of 19 independents to acquire the magic number of 149 to form government in Punjab.
(PTI) 123 + (PMLQ) 07 + (Ind) 19 = 149
Who is going to rule Punjab?
PMLN and PTI both are in quite status to form a coalition government in Punjab with the help of allies and independents. In both of the situations, Independents play a pivotal role in the formation sof government in Punjab. The victory would tilt towards the player who can bag maximum number of independents in their party favor.